专题：聚焦杰克逊霍尔大家央行年会 好意思联储主席鲍威尔表现行将降息【MAMA-135】瑾般亱绉併倰鎶便亜銇︿笅銇曘亜
华尔街见闻
北京时辰23日晚10点，好意思联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔大家央行年会上重磅发声。
会议上，鲍威尔开释了迄今为止最为明确的降息信号，他表现： 政策诊疗的时机也曾到来。降息时机和节律将取决于后续数据、远景变化和风险均衡。
他觉得，咫尺的政策利率水平为好意思联储提供了敷裕的空间来搪塞可能濒临的任何风险，包括劳能源市集景色进一步恶化的风险。“通胀的上行风险也曾削弱，事业的下行风险则有所增多。好意思联储关注双重责任各自所濒临的风险。”
以下为言语全文（中英对照）：
Four and a half years after COVID-19‘s arrival， the worst of the pandemic-related economic distortions are fading． Inflation has declined significantly． The labor market is no longer overheated， and conditions are now less tight than those that prevailed before the pandemic． Supply constraints have normalized． And the balance of the risks to our two mandates has changed． Our objective has been to restore price stability while maintaining a strong labor market， avoiding the sharp increases in unemployment that characterized earlier disinflationary episodes when inflation expectations were less well anchored． While the task is not complete， we have made a good deal of progress toward that outcome．
在新冠病毒到来四年半后，与疫情联系的最严重的经济误会正在消退。通货彭胀已彰着着落。劳能源市集不再过热，现在的景色也不如疫情前那么紧俏。供给限度也曾正常化。咱们两项任务的风险均衡也曾发生了变化。咱们的宗旨是复原价钱踏实的同期保握矫健的劳能源市集，幸免失业率急剧上升，这是通胀预期莫得充分锚定时闲居会出现的早期去通胀特征。咱们也曾朝着这个宗旨赢得了很猛进展。天然任务尚未完成，但咱们也曾朝着这一后果赢得了很猛进展。
Today， I will begin by addressing the current economic situation and the path ahead for monetary policy． I will then turn to a discussion of economic events since the pandemic arrived， exploring why inflation rose to levels not seen in a generation， and why it has fallen so much while unemployment has remained low．
今天，我将首先商讨面前的经济所在和货币政策的改日旅途。然后，我将转向对疫情以来经济事件的商讨，探讨为什么通货彭胀上升到一代东谈主以来的最高水平，以及为什么通胀率着落如斯之多，而失业率却保握在低位。
Near-Term Outlook for Policy 近期政策瞻望
Let‘s begin with the current situation and the near-term outlook for policy．
让咱们从面前的所在和近期政策远景驱动。
For much of the past three years， inflation ran well above our 2 percent goal， and labor market conditions were extremely tight． The Federal Open Market Committee‘s （FOMC） primary focus has been on bringing down inflation， and appropriately so． Prior to this episode， most Americans alive today had not experienced the pain of high inflation for a sustained period． Inflation brought substantial hardship， especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food， housing， and transportation． High inflation triggered stress and a sense of unfairness that linger today．
在昔日三年的大部分时辰里，通胀率远高于咱们 2% 的宗旨，劳能源市集景色极其垂死。联邦公开市集委员会 （FOMC） 的主要要点是镌汰通胀率，这是理所天然的。在此之前，咫尺大多数好意思国东谈主还莫得经历过长久高通胀的灾祸。通胀带来了迢遥的贫穷，尤其是对于那些最无力承担食物、住房和交通等基本糊口必需品腾贵老本的东谈主来说。高通胀激励的压力和不自制感于今仍然存在。
丁香网五月网Our restrictive monetary policy helped restore balance between aggregate supply and demand， easing inflationary pressures and ensuring that inflation expectations remained well anchored． Inflation is now much closer to our objective， with prices having risen 2.5 percent over the past 12 months （figure 1） ． After a pause earlier this year， progress toward our 2 percent objective has resumed． My confidence has grown that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2 percent．
咱们的限度性货币政策有助于复原总供需均衡，缓解通胀压力，并确保通胀预期保握精湛锚定。通货彭胀现在更接近咱们的宗旨，物价在昔日12个月中高涨了2.5%（图1）。继年头有所凝滞之后，咱们朝着2%的宗旨又赢得了进展。我越来越有信心，通胀率正沿着可握续的谈路回到2%。
Turning to employment， in the years just prior to the pandemic， we saw the significant benefits to society that can come from a long period of strong labor market conditions： low unemployment， high participation， historically low racial employment gaps， and， with inflation low and stable， healthy real wage gains that were increasingly concentrated among those with lower incomes．
谈到事业，在疫情爆发前的几年里，咱们看到了长久矫健的劳能源市集景色给社会带来的紧要利益：低失业率、高参与率、历史性的低种族事业差距，以及通货彭胀率低而踏实、推行工资增长健康且越来越汇集在低收入东谈主群中。
Today， the labor market has cooled considerably from its formerly overheated state． The unemployment rate began to rise over a year ago and is now at 4.3 percent—still low by historical standards， but almost a full percentage point above its level in early 2023 （figure 2）． Most of that increase has come over the past six months． So far， rising unemployment has not been the result of elevated layoffs， as is typically the case in an economic downturn． Rather， the increase mainly reflects a substantial increase in the supply of workers and a slowdown from the previously frantic pace of hiring． Even so， the cooling in labor market conditions is unmistakable． Job gains remain solid but have slowed this year.Job vacancies have fallen， and the ratio of vacancies to unemployment has returned to its pre-pandemic range． The hiring and quits rates are now below the levels that prevailed in 2018 and 2019． Nominal wage gains have moderated． All told， labor market conditions are now less tight than just before the pandemic in 2019—a year when inflation ran below 2 percent． It seems unlikely that the labor market will be a source of elevated inflationary pressures anytime soon． We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions．
如今，劳能源市集已从之前的过热状态大幅降温。失业率在一年多前驱动上升，咫尺为4.3%，以历史法式揣测仍然较低，但比2023年头的水平当先快要整整一个百分点（图2）。其中大部分上升是在昔日六个月中杀青的。到咫尺为止，失业率上升并不是裁人增多的后果，而裁人是经济败落期间的典型情况。违抗，这一增长主要反应了工东谈主供给的大幅增多以及之前荒诞的招聘速率有所放缓。即便如斯，劳能源市集景色的降温是无须置疑的。事业增长保握肃肃，但本年有所放缓。职位空白着落，职位空白与失业的比率已回到疫情前的水平。招聘率和去职率现在低于 2018年和2019年的水平。款式工资增长有所放缓。一言以蔽之，现在的劳能源市集景色不如2019年疫情之前那么垂死，那一年的通胀率低于2%。劳能源市集似乎不太可能在短期内成为通胀压力上升的根源。咱们不寻求或接待劳能源市集景色进一步降温。
Overall， the economy continues to grow at a solid pace． But the inflation and labor market data show an evolving situation． The upside risks to inflation have diminished． And the downside risks to employment have increased． As we highlighted in our last FOMC statement， we are attentive to the risks to both sides of our dual mandate．
总体而言，经济不息以肃肃的速率增长。但通货彭胀和劳能源市集数据骄气，情况正在不休变化。通胀的上行风险也曾削弱。事业的下行风险也有所增多。正如咱们在上一次FOMC中强调的那样，咱们关注双重负务中的两方面风险。
The time has come for policy to adjust． The direction of travel is clear， and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data， the evolving outlook， and the balance of risks．
现在是政策诊疗的时候了。前进的标的是明确的，降息的时机和方法将取决于行将到来的数据、不休变化的远景以及风险的均衡。
We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability． With an appropriate dialing back of policy restraint【MAMA-135】瑾般亱绉併倰鎶便亜銇︿笅銇曘亜， there is good reason to think that the economy will get back to 2 percent inflation while maintaining a strong labor market． The current level of our policy rate gives us ample room to respond to any risks we may face， including the risk of unwelcome further weakening in labor market conditions．
咱们将尽一切努力相沿矫健的劳能源市集，同期在价钱踏实方面发愤进一步进展。跟着政策经管的妥贴拘谨，咱们有充分的情理觉得，经济将回到2%的通胀率，同期保握矫健的劳能源市集。咱们咫尺的政策利率水平为咱们提供了敷裕的空间来搪塞可能濒临的任何风险，包括劳能源市集景色不受接待的进一步疲软的风险。
The Rise and Fall of Inflation 通胀的起落
Let‘s now turn to the questions of why inflation rose， and why it has fallen so significantly even as unemployment has remained low． There is a growing body of research on these questions， and this is a good time for this discussion.It is， of course， too soon to make definitive assessments． This period will be analyzed and debated long after we are gone．
现在让咱们来谈谈为什么通货彭胀会上升，为什么在失业率保握低位的情况下通货彭胀却大幅着落。对于这些问题的研究越来越多，现在是商讨的好时机。天然，现在作念出明确的评估还为时过早。在咱们离开后很长一段时辰，东谈主们仍将对这段期间进行分析和申辩。
The arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic led quickly to shutdowns in economies around the world． It was a time of radical uncertainty and severe downside risks． As so often happens in times of crisis， Americans adapted and innovated． Governments responded with extraordinary force， especially in the U.S． Congress unanimously passed the CARES Act． At the Fed， we used our powers to an unprecedented extent to stabilize the financial system and help stave off an economic depression．
新冠疫情的爆发赶紧导致大家经济停摆。这是一个充满不细目性和严重下行风险的期间。正如危急期间闲居发生的那样，好意思国东谈主得当独立异。列国政府作念出了超卓的复兴，尤其是好意思国国会一致通过了《珍重法案》。在好意思联储，咱们以前所未有的程度诓骗咱们的权利来踏实金融体系并匡助幸免经济稀疏。
After a historically deep but brief recession， in mid-2020 the economy began to grow again． As the risks of a severe， extended downturn receded， and as the economy reopened， we faced the risk of replaying the painfully slow recovery that followed the Global Financial Crisis．
在经历了历史上令东谈主长远但顷刻间的败落之后，2020年年中，经济再次驱动增长。跟着严重偏向下行的风险消退，以及经济再行洞开，咱们依然濒临着风险，可能会再次经历像大家金融危急之后那样安逸复苏的灾祸。
Congress delivered substantial additional fiscal support in late 2020 and again in early 2021． Spending recovered strongly in the first half of 2021． The ongoing pandemic shaped the pattern of the recovery． Lingering concerns over COVID weighed on spending on in-person services． But pent-up demand， stimulative policies， pandemic changes in work and leisure practices， and the additional savings associated with constrained services spending all contributed to a historic surge in consumer spending on goods．
国会在 2020 年底和 2021 年头提供了普遍出奇的财政相沿。2021 年上半年，开销矫健复苏。握续的疫情影响了复苏的模式。对新冠疫情的握续担忧攀扯了面对面服务的开销。但被压抑的需求、刺激政策、疫情导致的事业和平静俗例的变化，以及与服务开销受限联系的出奇储蓄，齐促使破钞者在商品上的开销出现历史性激增。
The pandemic also wreaked havoc on supply conditions． Eight million people left the workforce at its onset， and the size of the labor force was still 4 million below its pre-pandemic level in early 2021． The labor force would not return to its pre-pandemic trend until mid-2023 （figure 3）．Supply chains were snarled by a combination of lost workers， disrupted international trade linkages， and tectonic shifts in the composition and level of demand （figure 4）． Clearly， this was nothing like the slow recovery after the Global Financial Crisis．
疫情还对供给端变成了严重迫害。疫情驱动时有 800 万东谈主离开了劳能源市集，劳能源数目仍比 2021 年头疫情前的水平低 400 万东谈主。劳能源直到2023年年中才复原到疫情前的趋势（图3）。 工东谈主流失、外洋营业接洽中断以及需求水平以及组成的结构性变化等成分使供应链堕入窘境（图4）。领略，这与大家金融危急后的安逸复苏完竣不同。
Enter inflation． After running below target through 2020， inflation spiked in March and April 2021． The initial burst of inflation was concentrated rather than broad based， with extremely large price increases for goods in short supply， such as motor vehicles． My colleagues and I judged at the outset that these pandemic-related factors would not be persistent and， thus， that the sudden rise in inflation was likely to pass through fairly quickly without the need for a monetary policy response—in short， that the inflation would be transitory． Standard thinking has long been that， as long as inflation expectations remain well anchored， it can be appropriate for central banks to look through a temporary rise in inflation．
通货彭胀驱动透露。在 2020 年全年低于宗旨水平后，通货彭胀在 2021 年 3 月和 4 月飙升。最初的通货彭胀爆发是汇集的，而不是芜俚的，汽车等穷乏商品的价钱大幅高涨。我和我的共事一驱动就判断，这些与疫情联系的成分不会握续，因此，通货彭胀的倏得上升很可能很快就会昔日，而不需要货币政策搪塞——简而言之，通货彭胀将是暂时的。长久以来的法式念念维是，只须通胀预期保握精湛踏实，央行就不错忽略通胀的暂时上升。
The good ship Transitory was a crowded one， with most mainstream analysts and advanced-economy central bankers on board.The common expectation was that supply conditions would improve reasonably quickly， that the rapid recovery in demand would run its course， and that demand would rotate back from goods to services， bringing inflation down．
“暂时性”这艘好船挤满了东谈主，大多数主流分析师和表现经济体央行行长齐相沿这一不雅点。他们普遍预期供应景色将赶紧改善，需求的快速复苏将顺从其好意思，需求将从商品转向服务，从而镌汰通胀率。
For a time， the data were consistent with the transitory hypothesis． Monthly readings for core inflation declined every month from April to September 2021， although progress came slower than expected （figure 5）． The case began to weaken around midyear， as was reflected in our communications． Beginning in October， the data turned hard against the transitory hypothesis.9 Inflation rose and broadened out from goods into services． It became clear that the high inflation was not transitory， and that it would require a strong policy response if inflation expectations were to remain well anchored． We recognized that and pivoted beginning in November． Financial conditions began to tighten． After phasing out our asset purchases， we lifted off in March 2022．
一段时辰内，数据与暂时性假定相一致。2021 年 4 月至 9 月，中枢通胀的月度读数每月齐不才降，尽管进展慢于预期（图 5）。正如咱们的疏通所反应的那样，这种情况在年中摆布驱动削弱。从 10 月驱动，数据变得与暂时性假定以火去蛾中。9 通胀上升，并从商品扩展到服务。很彰着，高通胀不是暂时的，如果要保握通胀预期的精湛踏实，就需要强有劲的政策搪塞。咱们贯通到了这极少，并从 11 月驱动振荡。金融景色驱动收紧。在慢慢取消钞票购买后，咱们于 2022 年 3 月驱动加息。
By early 2022， headline inflation exceeded 6 percent， with core inflation above 5 percent． New supply shocks appeared． Russia‘s invasion of Ukraine led to a sharp increase in energy and commodity prices． The improvements in supply conditions and rotation in demand from goods to services were taking much longer than expected， in part due to further COVID waves in the U.S．
到2022年头，总体通胀越过6%，中枢通胀越过5%。新的供给冲击出现。俄乌突破导致能源和大批商品价钱大幅高涨。供给景色的改善和需求从商品转向服务的时辰比预期的要长得多，部分原因是好意思国新一轮的新冠海潮。
High rates of inflation were a global phenomenon， reflecting common experiences： rapid increases in the demand for goods， strained supply chains， tight labor markets， and sharp hikes in commodity prices.12 The global nature of inflation was unlike any period since the 1970s． Back then， high inflation became entrenched—an outcome we were utterly committed to avoiding．
高通胀率是一种大家现象，反应了共同的经历：商品需求赶紧增多、供应链垂死、劳能源市集垂死以及大批商品价钱大幅高涨。大家通胀的骨子不同于上世纪70年代以来的任何期间。当时，高通胀也曾树大根深——这是咱们尽全力幸免的后果。
By mid-2022， the labor market was extremely tight， with employment increasing by over 6-1/2 million from the middle of 2021． This increase in labor demand was met， in part， by workers rejoining the labor force as health concerns began to fade． But labor supply remained constrained， and， in the summer of 2022， labor force participation remained well below pre-pandemic levels． There were nearly twice as many job openings as unemployed persons from March 2022 through the end of the year， signaling a severe labor shortage （figure 6）．Inflation peaked at 7.1 percent in June 2022．
2022年年中，劳能源市集止境垂死，事业东谈主数比2021年年中增多了650万以上。劳能源需求的增多在一定程度上是通过工东谈主再行加入劳能源市集来杀青的，因为东谈主们对健康的担忧驱动消退。但劳能源供给仍然受到限度，2022年夏天的劳能源参与率仍远低于疫情前的水平。从2022年3月到年底，职位空白数险些是失业东谈主数的两倍，标明劳能源严重穷乏（图6）。通胀在2022年6月达到7.1%的峰值。
At this podium two years ago， I discussed the possibility that addressing inflation could bring some pain in the form of higher unemployment and slower growth． Some argued that getting inflation under control would require a recession and a lengthy period of high unemployment． I expressed our unconditional commitment to fully restoring price stability and to keeping at it until the job is done．
两年前，我曾在这个讲台上商讨过，惩办通货彭胀问题可能会带来失业率上升和经济增长放缓等一些灾祸。有东谈主觉得，阻挡通货彭胀需要经济败落和长久的高失业率。我抒发了咱们无条件的欢喜，即全面复原价钱踏实，并坚握下去，直到任务完成。
The FOMC did not flinch from carrying out our responsibilities， and our actions forcefully demonstrated our commitment to restoring price stability． We raised our policy rate by 425 basis points in 2022 and another 100 basis points in 2023． We have held our policy rate at its current restrictive level since July 2023 （figure 7）．
FOMC在践诺职守方面莫得退守，咱们的作为有劲地标明了咱们对复原价钱踏实的决心。咱们在2022年将政策利率上调了425bp，并在2023年再次上调 100bp。自2023年7月以来，咱们一直将政策利率看护在咫尺的限度性水平（图7）。
The summer of 2022 proved to be the peak of inflation． The 4-1/2 percentage point decline in inflation from its peak two years ago has occurred in a context of low unemployment—a welcome and historically unusual result．
通胀在2022 年夏日达到峰值。在低失业率的配景下，通胀从两年前的峰值着落了4.5%，这是一个可喜且历史悲凉的后果。
How did inflation fall without a sharp rise in unemployment above its estimated natural rate？
何如达到通胀着落而失业率莫得急剧上升到越过估量的天然失业率的？
Pandemic-related distortions to supply and demand， as well as severe shocks to energy and commodity markets， were important drivers of high inflation， and their reversal has been a key part of the story of its decline． The unwinding of these factors took much longer than expected but ultimately played a large role in the subsequent disinflation． Our restrictive monetary policy contributed to a moderation in aggregate demand， which combined with improvements in aggregate supply to reduce inflationary pressures while allowing growth to continue at a healthy pace． As labor demand also moderated， the historically high level of vacancies relative to unemployment has normalized primarily through a decline in vacancies， without sizable and disruptive layoffs， bringing the labor market to a state where it is no longer a source of inflationary pressures．
疫情联系的供需误会以及对能源和大批商品市集的严重冲击，是高通胀的进犯驱动成分，而它们的逆转是通胀着落的关键部分。这些成分的摒除破耗的时辰比预期要长得多，但最终在随后的去通胀中说明了进犯作用。限度性货币政策导致总需求放缓，这与总供给的改善相伙同，减轻了通胀压力，同期不息保握良性增长。跟着劳能源需求也有所放缓，职位空白率/失业率也曾从历史高位复原正常，主如若通过职位空白的着落，而非大规模和迫害性的裁人，使得劳能源市集不再是通胀压力的泉源。
A word on the critical importance of inflation expectations． Standard economic models have long reflected the view that inflation will return to its objective when product and labor markets are balanced—without the need for economic slack—so long as inflation expectations are anchored at our objective． That‘s what the models said， but the stability of longer-run inflation expectations since the 2000s had not been tested by a persistent burst of high inflation． It was far from assured that the inflation anchor would hold． Concerns over de-anchoring contributed to the view that disinflation would require slack in the economy and specifically in the labor market． An important takeaway from recent experience is that anchored inflation expectations， reinforced by vigorous central bank actions， can facilitate disinflation without the need for slack．
对于通胀预期的进犯性。长久以来，法式经济模子一直反应出这样一种不雅点，即只须通胀预期锚定在咱们的宗旨上，当产物和劳能源市集达到均衡时，通胀就会回到其宗旨，而不会带来经济自便。模子是这样说的，但自2000年代以来长久通胀预期的踏实性并莫得采纳过握续高通胀的试验。通胀能否握续锚定还远不可得以保险。对脱锚的担忧促成了一种不雅点，即去通胀将需要经济（尤其是劳能源市集）的自便。从最近的经历中得出的一个进犯论断是，锚定的通胀预期，加上央行的有劲作为，不错促进去通胀，经济自便并不是必须的。
This narrative attributes much of the increase in inflation to an extraordinary collision between overheated and temporarily distorted demand and constrained supply． While researchers differ in their approaches and， to some extent， in their conclusions， a consensus seems to be emerging， which I see as attributing most of the rise in inflation to this collision.All told， the healing from pandemic distortions， our efforts to moderate aggregate demand， and the anchoring of expectations have worked together to put inflation on what increasingly appears to be a sustainable path to our 2 percent objective．
这种说法将通胀上升主要懊恼于（经济）过热以及暂时误会的需求与受限的供给之间的超卓碰撞。尽管研究东谈主员在次第上各不一样，在某种程度上他们的论断上也各不一样，但似乎正在形成一种共鸣，在我看来即是通胀上升的大部分原因应懊恼于这场碰撞。一言以蔽之，咱们从疫情的误会中复原了过来，咱们为简陋总需求所作念的努力伙同对预期的锚定，共同使通胀走上了一条日益杀青2%宗旨的可握续谈路。
Disinflation while preserving labor market strength is only possible with anchored inflation expectations， which reflect the public‘s confidence that the central bank will bring about 2 percent inflation over time． That confidence has been built over decades and reinforced by our actions．
只须在锚定通胀预期的情况下才有可能在保握劳能源市集矫健的同期杀青去通胀，这反应了公众有信心央行将渐渐达到2%摆布的通胀宗旨。这种信心是昔日几十年来建造起来的，而况通过咱们的作为得以加强。
That is my assessment of events． Your mileage may vary．
这是我对事件的评估。可能因东谈主而异。
Conclusion 论断
Let me wrap up by emphasizing that the pandemic economy has proved to be unlike any other， and that there remains much to be learned from this extraordinary period． Our Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy emphasizes our commitment to reviewing our principles and making appropriate adjustments through a thorough public review every five years． As we begin this process later this year， we will be open to criticism and new ideas， while preserving the strengths of our framework． The limits of our knowledge—so clearly evident during the pandemic—demand humility and a questioning spirit focused on learning lessons from the past and applying them flexibly to our current challenges．
终末，我想强调的是，事实解释，疫情经济与其他任何经济齐不同，从这一极端期间中咱们仍有很多东西需要学习。咱们的《长久宗旨和货币政策策略声明》强调，咱们竭力于每五年通过一次全面的公开审查来审查咱们的原则并作念出妥贴诊疗。当咱们在本年晚些时候驱动这一程度时，咱们将对月旦和新想法握洞开气魄，同期保握咱们框架的上风。咱们常识的局限性——在疫情时候可想而知——要求咱们保握和善和质疑精神，专注于从昔日吸取经历并纯真地将其应用于咱们面前的挑战。
注：鲍威尔言语稿原文详见好意思联储官网，华尔街见闻略有删省。
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